Archive for the ‘NCAA College Football’ Category

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The importance of Key Numbers in Football: Learning how to Bet

Friday, September 23rd, 2011

Football is definitely the most exciting sport in America, but it’s even more exciting when your making money at the same time! We often get asked what “key numbers” mean and refer to in relation with gambling football. Knowing what the key numbers are in football is absolutely critical to being a successful gambler.

The one number oddsmakers hate to get off is 3. That tells you right there that three is the most important number. Our leading football handicapper Beau Lynn, nationally known as “Cat5″ provided research statitistics for us from the past 20 years to see how frequently games were decided by 3 points. The data showed that roughly 16 percent of NFL games finished with an exact 3-point difference. That research data also showed that this was more than double that of games finishing with exactly a 7 point difference, the next key number. Seven percent of NFL games end with a team winning by exactly 7 points.

Other key numbers are 6 (occurs six percent of the time), 10 (five percent) and 4 (five percent).

These are important numbers to know, understand, and put heavy emphasis on. Rarely will you find a football game, particularly in the NFL, end in victories of 1, 2, 5, 8, 12, 15 and 16 points. Extra point kicks in the NFL have nearly a 100 percent success rate, unlike in college.

It’s important to anticipate if and when a game may moves off a key number because this can mean the difference between a WIN or a LOSS. A strong clue is higher juice tied to one side, especially early in the week.

If the favorite opens -3 and the vig keeps climbing, there’s a possibility of the line eventually moving to 3.5. So if you like the favorite, the time to bet is right away. If you like the underdog, it would be prudent to wait in the hopes a 3.5 will come up.

Just like on sides, there are key betting numbers on over/unders. The two most important numbers in this area are 41 and 37.

Successful total players often make their own power rating and then look for a disparity of at least three points in the odds from their number.

If a 37 or 41 are involved, the disparity could be just one or two points.

Other key totals numbers are 51, 38, 44 and 45. It can be much easier to middle or side a total rather than a pointspread number because odds makers move totals faster. That’s because there is usually more wiseguy action on totals.

Knowing your key numbers will help you be more successful in the long run, and allow you to jump on the best line in your favor so you avoid losing by those hooks! It is also important to have several books so you can line shop to get the best line in your favor. Far to often we see amateur gamblers take whatever line their book has it at, and it can mean the difference between a Win or Loss. The books have enough advantage as it is, wise up and take some of that advantage back.

Easy Thursday Night NCAAFB Winner on the Under

Thursday, September 15th, 2011

Our handicappers are still tearing up the books hitting a perfect 4-0 on NFL and NCAAFB since Monday. That is after coming off a 6-1 NCAAFB Saturday and 4-2 NFL Sunday! That is a 14-3 record since last Saturday in football! The only loss in NCAAFB since last Saturday was a notre dame loss with a miracle hail mary by Michigan.

Thursday night our handicappers delivered a laid back easy winner taking the Under on the LSU vs. Mississippi State game. They have 2 plays on Friday and some large plays ready for us this weekend on both NCAAFB and NFL.

Let’s keep the momentum going as ATSWinners is now 22-8-1 overall to start the football season!!

10-3 this weekend in NCAAFB and NFL

Monday, September 12th, 2011

Our football handicappers went 10-3 this weekend with a 6-1 record on college football Saturday and 4-2 in the NFL on Sunday. They have 3 plays ready for Monday night NFL double header and look to continue to beat the books. The public is jumping all over the Patriots as well as the Broncos in today’s double header match-ups. Let’s start this week off right with increasing our bank roll and enjoying 2 games on Monday night!

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LSU Tigers rise to No.2 in AP college football Top 25 rankings

Tuesday, September 6th, 2011

Winning the biggest game of college football’s opening weekend boosted LSU to No. 2 in The Associated Press Top 25.

No. 1 Oklahoma held on to the top spot in the first regular-season rankings, while the Tigers used their 40-27 victory against Oregon to jump rival Alabama, which slipped to No. 3.

“It’s way too early to feel like we have accomplished anything,” LSU coach Les Miles said. “Our guys understand the need to improve each game.”

AP Poll
The top five teams in the preseason Associated Press college football Top 25:

OU
LSU
Bama
Boise State
FSU
• Complete rankings

The Sooners received 32 of 60 first-place votes and 1,448 points. LSU received 17 first-place votes and 1,415 points.

Alabama had nine first-place votes, and two voters had No. 4 Boise State top-ranked after the Broncos’ impressive 35-21 win against Georgia. Florida State moved up to No. 5.

Oregon dropped nine spots to No. 13 and defending national champion Auburn, which started the season at No. 23, fell out of the Top 25 after needing a late rally to beat Utah State 42-38 at home.

The Tigers became just the second defending national champions since the preseason poll started in 1950 to fall out of the rankings after the first week of the season in the first regular-season poll — though the circumstances were far different the first time it happened.

Alabama, the 1964 AP champion, started the ‘65 season ranked No. 5. The Crimson Tide lost 18-17 to Georgia to open the season and dropped out, but The Associated Press only ranked 10 teams that season. Alabama eventually returned to the top 10 and won another national title.

The 1961 Minnesota team is the only defending champion to be unranked in the preseason poll.

Moving into this week’s rankings were No. 20 Baylor, which beat TCU 50-48, and No. 22 South Florida, 23-20 winners at Notre Dame, along with No. 23 Penn State and No. 24 Texas.

Texas had started the season unranked for the first time since 1998.

TCU fell 11 spots to No. 25.

Penn State moves into the rankings ahead of Saturday’s home game against third-ranked Alabama. It’s the only game this week matching ranked teams.

Notre Dame and Georgia tumbled out of the Top 25 after losses. Like Auburn, USC, which opened the season ranked 25th, fell out of the rankings after a victory. USC squeaked by Minnesota 19-17.

The rest of the top 10 had No. 6 Stanford, followed by Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State and Nebraska.

No. 11 is Virginia Tech, followed by South Carolina, Oregon, Arkansas and Ohio State.

No. 16 Mississippi State and No. 18 Florida give the Southeastern Conference six ranked teams this week, matching the Big 12 for the most. No. 21 Missouri joins Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas.

The Big Ten has five ranked teams, with No. 17 Michigan State joining Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State and Ohio State.

No. 19 West Virginia and USF give the Big East two teams in the Top 25. The Atlantic Coast Conference (Florida State and Virginia Tech), the Pac-12 (Stanford and Oregon) and the Mountain West (Boise State and TCU) also have two ranked teams.

Copyright 2011 by The Associated Press

NCAA College Football 2011 Season – Drama already!?!?

Saturday, August 27th, 2011

Another year of NCAA College Football is about here and I am very excited about what is in store. It seems as if the drama will be at an all time high this season with the NCAA cracking down with investigations, and college kids not able to stay out of their own way. The face of the Oregon vs. LSU game has certainly changed after Jordan Jefferson and Josh Johns have been suspended indefinitely for a bar fight brawl. What was Jefferson’s most important year of football may have all but been ruined for kicking some poor guys face in. It never seems to amaze me the stupidity and lack of parental guidance some of these kids display year after year. Was trying to show how tough you are worth losing a season of football? I would think not.

The nice thing about this as the heavily favorite Oregon team will get pounced some more hopefully forcing the line in the favor of the LSU tigers a bit more. Our college football handicapper CAT5 has had his eye on the 2 biggest games this weekend with Boise State vs. Georgia and Oregon vs LSU.

How is Boise State going to replace their 2 top wide outs this year that combined for 48% of their passing offense last year? That should be interesting, Kellen Moore is a good qb, but not a great one. Georgia has been a bit quiet in the SEC the past few years, but they look to be primed to make some noise this year. They should give Kellen Moore a lot of grief in that backfield, and we certainly will take points and an SEC team at home on any given Saturday.

The Oregon and LSU game has a different look to it with a lot of LSU distractions, and their starting QB sidelined for stupidity. However, do not think Jarett Lee can not get the job done, he has plenty of experience. Let’s be honest, LSU has never won games because of stellar QB play. Their nasty defense, ground and pound game, and trick plays at the right time seem to make the wheels turn in Baton Rouge. With LSU getting anywhere from 1-3 points possibly before kick off at home, we will take another SEC team and the points at home.

We look to start things off hot, and Cat5 has been talking to his sources, and studying his ass off to line our pockets this season. We look forward to making our clients money and enjoying what is promised to be one of our most successful football seasons to date!

NCAA College Football 2011 Rankings

Thursday, August 4th, 2011

The 2011 NCAA football season is a month away with the first games scheduled for September 1, 2, 3 and 5. Naturally that means it’s time to start the preseason hype train for a few lucky teams. We’ve seen preseason award lists released, but now the big boys are getting in on the action.

USA Today released their preseason coaches’ poll and have voted Oklahoma the overwhelming number one team in all the land. Alabama, Oregon and LSU are all getting first place votes as well, but Oklahoma is leading the way with 42 of a possible 59 first place votes.

The Stanford Cardinal find themselves ranked sixth, which says a lot about the respect for the new coaching staff and quarterback/preseason Heisman favorite Andrew Luck. The Cardinal face a tough task even with a potential Heisman trophy winner. The loss of Jim Harbaugh and much of his coaching staff is the big question mark. However, the Cardinal also lost FB Owen Marecic, DT Sione Fua, WR Ryan Whalen, and CB Richard Sherman. They’ll need to get some quality competition at those positions if they’re going to represent this high ranking well. Ohio State shouldnt be in the top 40 as far as we are concerned.

1. Oklahoma (42)
2. Alabama (13)
3. Oregon (2)
4. LSU (2)
5. Florida State
6. Stanford
7. Boise State
8. Oklahoma State
9. Texas A&M
10. Wisconsin
11. Nebraska
12. South Carolina
13. Virginia Tech
14. Arkansas
15. TCU
16. Ohio State
17. Michigan State
18. Notre Dame
19. Auburn
20. Mississippi State
21. Missouri
22. Georgia
23. Florida
24. Texas
25. Penn State

WHO IS #1?
First, what has now become an overwhelming sentiment, the Oklahoma Sooners look like the sure-fire team to start out in the No. 1 spot. This case was far from settled just a month ago when NationalChamps.net was the first to release a 2011 look ahead with the GoDaddy.com Early Bird Preview. Some people scoffed at the notion the Sooners would be top dog as the early presentation showed. Now that the versatile Ryan Broyles has decided to return for his senior year and given that head coach Bob Stoops shook off his usual BCS woes while defeating an out manned UConn in the Fiesta Bowl, this team is going to be starting out on top. If anyone else is going to push for this honor it’s going to be Alabama, LSU or Oregon.

WHO ELSE?
Alabama – The Tide lost three major players early to the NFL Draft (Ingram, Jones and Dareus) or this might have been that top team for 2011, at least in a few other polls. Everything is set in Tuscaloosa for a run at the SEC Championship minus the play of a new quarterback. The only team standing in their way would be…

LSU – The Bayou Bengals looked fantastic offensively in their Cotton Bowl performance. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson may finally be turning the corner, an ingredient that has held Les Miles’ team back. With so much personnel returning, they help make the SEC West the best Divisional split in all of college football by a landslide.

Oregon – The Ducks have the ability to get back to the BCS National Championship Game if anything based solely on the fact both quarterback Darron Thomas and top Heisman contender LaMichael James at running back are in this crazy quick-strike offensive mix. They have to find better answers on the line of scrimmage before they can be compared to the likes of the people ranked in front of them.

CARDINAL MYTH
It’s been said by some television commentators (including the Orange Bowl crew) that Stanford will be a front-runner for all the marbles if quarterback Andrew Luck returns as the Cardinal has upwards of 16 starters returning. This is far from the truth; they only have 11 starters back. That does not even include the loss of their head coach Jim Harbaugh. With Luck back, sure Stanford is somewhere in the Top 10 to start next season, but claiming they are one of the favorites to win it all is a stretch with so many holes to replace.

WHAT TO DO WITH THESE SUSPENDED BUCKEYES?
Looks like all five Ohio State players that are to be suspended for the first five games of 2011 have actually kept their word and decided to return to Columbus while skipping the NFL Draft. Had all these guys not been suspended, the Buckeyes could easily be sitting in the Top 5 this preseason. They won’t climb that high, but they won’t be that far off either. Even if those five guys never did comeback, Ohio State would still be one of the most talented/well-coached teams in America on the field.

SEMINOLE LOVE AFFAIR
The big jump/surprise in these preseason polls has been the extremely high ranking of Florida State. A few prognosticators have even gone so far to place Jimbo Fisher’s team in the Top 5. Hold on a minute! While the talent pool continues to be solid through recruiting some holes still need addressed including inconsistencies on defense and the loss of the two top blockers. E.J. Manuel looks like the real deal behind center though. The truth however is that no ACC team should ever rank that high. History should have told everyone this much. But this certainly is a year that could start the Noles down the path of finally being back.

THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA IS OFFENSIVE
You want offense? When Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon decided to return to Stillwater for another season, Oklahoma State laid claim to first rights in the Big 12 conference chase of the in-state rival Sooners. Ten starters will line up on this side of the ball for the Cowboys. Nine will line up offensively for the Sooners. Both of their quarterbacks were tabbed All-Big 12 this past fall. If either one of these teams can learn how to play defense, the winner of the Bedlam Series could be headed for a national title showdown without having to finally play a conference championship game to get there. With only ten teams for now, the Big 12 just made their team’s road to the BCS much easier.

TCU STILL GETTING NO RESPECT
So the Horned Frogs have some serious rebuilding to do. Only ten starters are coming back from the nation’s undefeated No. 2 ranked team. When will people learn that head coach Gary Patterson does well no matter how many starters come back? A trend exists in Fort Worth that continues to get ignored on years such as this. Get real…they don’t deserve a lofty preseason ranking, but they also don’t deserve the disrespect they seem to be getting by being placed in the lower half of the Top 25. NationalChamps.net made the necessary adjustments.

BUMMIN’ BOUT BOISE
If fans in the BCS aligned conferences are sick of hearing about Boise State claiming they belong in the discussion for top honors…don’t look now but the Broncos with Kellen Moore back behind center will continue to be this year’s top version of the politically correct “non-AQ” (non-automatic qualifier) team. The Broncos move from the WAC to the newly aligned Mountain West didn’t do much for their schedule difficulty…or lack of.

STARKVILLE SURPRISE
Mississippi State finished the 2010 season ranked 15th in the AP Poll. They also bring back the same amount of people, if not more, when compared to everyone else ranked in front of them. So how is it that their average ranking from all these early preseason polls drops to around No. 21? This makes no sense. The offense is starting to pick up the pace and head coach Dan Mullen has his Dawgs barking as Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez found out at the Gator Bowl coaching his last Wolverine game. NationalChamps.net made the necessary adjustments.

IRISH RESURRECTION PART XII
Notre Dame has a new coach. Notre Dame just got a rare bowl victory over a Hawai’i team that finished .500 for the season. Oh wait, that was two years ago. This bowl win was against a Miami team in the middle of a complete meltdown. The point is, with so many players coming back in South Bend the media is sure to blow these Irish bagpipes all the way into September talking about how first year coach Brian Kelly has turned the program around. Same story, different coach. This team surely has potential to be much better. But jumping them from their final No. 33 ranking in the 2010 AP Poll into a Top 15 spot for next year is malarkey. For once this century can Notre Dame prove they belong?

TULSA TIME
NationalChamps.net pegged Tulsa as a Top 25 team in the first Early Bird Release last month. Some folks disagreed. After beating a good Hawai’i team on the islands Christmas Eve, the Golden Hurricane finished ranked 24th in the AP Poll. New head coach Bill Blankenship just inherited a “golden” mine full of 24-carat players.

Big Ten Football Game & Betting Conspiracy Theories

Monday, October 11th, 2010

In sports, everyone is a winner-some people just win better than others. Like the Wisconsin Badgers, who were up 25 with 6 minutes left, and went for two. It didn’t please Minnesota, but it pleased some people with money on the game.

The Badgers were well on their way to winning Paul Bunyan’s Axe, as they have every year since 2003. But after a touchdown to put the game out of reach, Wisconsin was up 41-16 with 6:39 remaining. Bret Bielema went for two. This was significant for only two sets of people: Minnesota fans, who took it as an insult; and anyone who had bet the over/under, which was set at 58.

I’ll spare you the math. A successful two-point conversion would have pushed the total points to 59.

Naturally, Gophers coach Tim Brewster was unhappy, confronting Bielema after the final whistle, and ripping into him in his post-game presser:

Weekend Winner: Big Ten Gamblers And Conspiracy Theories

I was very upset, and I made sure he understood and made sure he knew,” Gophers coach Tim Brewster said of the call. “I thought it was wrong. There’s no excuse for it. Period.

“I’d be less of a man if I didn’t stand up for my kids.”

Bielema defended himself by saying that’s what the cards told him to do. Those ubiquitous “go-for-two” cards, which every team has on the sidelines, and relies upon to tell them what situations are ripe for the two-point conversion. Wisconsin’s apparently say something like, “Go for two here. If they manage to score three TDs in the next five minutes, and convert their own two-point conversions all three times, then a field goal will only tie it. Who cares if there’s barely any time left, and they haven’t been able to move the ball all day. Go for two. Be a dick.”

Or, you know, help out some big-time Badger Booster who took the over.

Let’s be clear. We’re not actually suggesting that big time college football is the thrall of Las Vegas, or that Wisconsin was making decisions based on millions of dollars on the line at some sports book. We just love sports gambling conspiracy theories. Tim Tebow taking to the air to cover the spread in the waning minutes of the 2008 SEC Title Game, when pounding the run would’ve run out the clock. Colorado throwing up a hail mary as time expired against Nebraska last year, still losing by 8, but covering the spread. (Note: no one remembers this but me.)

We’re just pointing out that if someone on Wisconsin had the over, going for two — and failing — would have made some very powerful people very unhappy. Someone on Wisconsin might’ve let Minnesota march 62 yards in 1:38 in order to keep their thumbs. Which is exactly what happened.

Minnesota’s meaningless late TD to cement the over, not the thumbs thing.

Send an email to Barry Petchesky, the author of this post, at barryp@deadspin.com.

Opening 2 days of College Football 2010 a Success

Saturday, September 4th, 2010

Our professional sports handicappers have opened up the college football 2010 season going 4-1 for +14 units! They have a nice slate for Saturday and Sunday, so get on board now and take advantage of our 40% Off special for a full football season! This includes college football 2010, and the NFL season as well. This offer is only until September 9th, so do not delay and we will see you in the winning circle!

Football Early Bird Handicapping Special Limited Time Only

Sunday, August 22nd, 2010

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