Football is definitely the most exciting sport in America, but it’s even more exciting when your making money at the same time! We often get asked what “key numbers” mean and refer to in relation with gambling football. Knowing what the key numbers are in football is absolutely critical to being a successful gambler.
The one number oddsmakers hate to get off is 3. That tells you right there that three is the most important number. Our leading football handicapper Beau Lynn, nationally known as “Cat5″ provided research statitistics for us from the past 20 years to see how frequently games were decided by 3 points. The data showed that roughly 16 percent of NFL games finished with an exact 3-point difference. That research data also showed that this was more than double that of games finishing with exactly a 7 point difference, the next key number. Seven percent of NFL games end with a team winning by exactly 7 points.
Other key numbers are 6 (occurs six percent of the time), 10 (five percent) and 4 (five percent).
These are important numbers to know, understand, and put heavy emphasis on. Rarely will you find a football game, particularly in the NFL, end in victories of 1, 2, 5, 8, 12, 15 and 16 points. Extra point kicks in the NFL have nearly a 100 percent success rate, unlike in college.
It’s important to anticipate if and when a game may moves off a key number because this can mean the difference between a WIN or a LOSS. A strong clue is higher juice tied to one side, especially early in the week.
If the favorite opens -3 and the vig keeps climbing, there’s a possibility of the line eventually moving to 3.5. So if you like the favorite, the time to bet is right away. If you like the underdog, it would be prudent to wait in the hopes a 3.5 will come up.
Just like on sides, there are key betting numbers on over/unders. The two most important numbers in this area are 41 and 37.
Successful total players often make their own power rating and then look for a disparity of at least three points in the odds from their number.
If a 37 or 41 are involved, the disparity could be just one or two points.
Other key totals numbers are 51, 38, 44 and 45. It can be much easier to middle or side a total rather than a pointspread number because odds makers move totals faster. That’s because there is usually more wiseguy action on totals.
Knowing your key numbers will help you be more successful in the long run, and allow you to jump on the best line in your favor so you avoid losing by those hooks! It is also important to have several books so you can line shop to get the best line in your favor. Far to often we see amateur gamblers take whatever line their book has it at, and it can mean the difference between a Win or Loss. The books have enough advantage as it is, wise up and take some of that advantage back.